Is Tadej Pogačar unbeatable? That's the question plaguing rival cycling teams, especially after Team Visma | Lease a Bike threw everything they had at him in last year's Tour de France... and still came up short. They didn't just try to win; they dissected Pogačar's every move, analyzed his power output, and meticulously planned their attacks. But here's the kicker: despite their best efforts, the Slovenian superstar emerged victorious. So, what did Visma learn from their intense, data-driven assault? Let's dive into the fascinating insights shared by Victor Campenaerts, a key player in Visma's campaign.
It's easy to think that Visma's strategy was simply about having a strong team to support Jonas Vingegaard, positioning him perfectly and sending riders up the road in breakaways. And that's definitely part of it. But it's so much more nuanced than that. The team's real secret weapon was their deep dive into Pogačar's performance data. They weren't just racing against him; they were trying to understand him.
Campenaerts revealed the extent of their analysis in an interview with Het Nieuwsblad, stating, "Look, last year we tried to make the race extremely hard and still Pogacar won." This wasn't a casual observation; it was the conclusion of months of intense scrutiny.
The challenge, as Campenaerts explains, was that Pogačar seemed to have no weaknesses in the mountains. He consistently delivered the best power-to-weight ratio (W/Kg) on crucial climbs, showcasing incredible endurance and recovery. Plus, he had a strong team backing him up, providing both physical and mental support.
But Visma didn't give up. They went to extraordinary lengths to pinpoint any potential vulnerabilities. "The team’s data analysts have analyzed everything," Campenaerts elaborated. "How much time did Jonas ride above his FTP in the Tour? Where do we estimate Pogačar’s FTP, and how much time did he ride above his FTP? So how many sugars (carbs, most likely) did they both burn? Could it be that we put Jonas into a bigger deficit than Pogacar?” FTP, or Functional Threshold Power, represents the maximum power a cyclist can sustain for roughly an hour. By comparing how long Vingegaard and Pogačar spent above their respective FTPs, Visma hoped to identify moments where Pogačar might crack.
Visma's aggressive tactics on hilly and even flat stages were all aimed at pushing Pogačar to his limit. They wanted to force a moment of weakness that Vingegaard could exploit. And this is the part most people miss: it wasn't just about Vingegaard being stronger; it was about strategically creating an opportunity for him to gain an advantage. However, Pogačar remained unyielding, delivering consistently strong performances throughout the Tour. Visma ultimately had to settle for second place, a testament to Pogačar's dominance.
Campenaerts himself had a remarkable race, achieving personal best climbing numbers and playing a vital role in Vingegaard's support network. His experience and positive attitude were invaluable to the team's morale. "Everyone keeps getting better," Campenaerts noted. "If you’d shown me the numbers I rode last year early in my career, I wouldn’t have said I could win a Grand Tour, but I would have been riding for the prizes in Paris-Nice." He acknowledges the ever-increasing level of competition, emphasizing that top riders like Pogačar, Vingegaard, Remco Evenepoel, and Mathieu van der Poel are constantly pushing the boundaries.
Looking ahead, Campenaerts is set to support Vingegaard in both the Giro d'Italia and the Tour de France in 2025. He understands the importance of his domestique role, stating, "In the Grand Tours it’s about watts per kilo but it’s also about who can perform when the team management comes to your room the day before and says: tomorrow you’re going to be at the front of the peloton at this point in the race, with the rest of the team in the wheel, and you ride until there are no riders left from other teams.”
And this is where it gets controversial... Campenaerts also sheds light on Visma's rider selection process, revealing that raw power numbers aren't everything. The team prioritizes riders who can perform under pressure and contribute positively to the team dynamic. “There are riders who smash everything in training, but then it doesn’t work in a race," he explained. "Our performance team is very good at spotting that: who buckles under pressure, who brings something extra to the table, who might create a negative atmosphere on the bus." This suggests that Visma values mental fortitude and team cohesion just as much as physical prowess. But does this emphasis on team dynamics sometimes lead to overlooking potentially game-changing riders with less conventional personalities?
Ultimately, Visma's experience highlights the complexities of modern cycling. It's not just about individual talent; it's about data analysis, strategic planning, and a cohesive team environment. The question remains: can anyone find a chink in Pogačar's armor? What do you think? Is Pogačar simply unbeatable, or is there a strategy out there that could finally dethrone him? And do you agree with Visma's emphasis on team dynamics over raw talent? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
